Mon, Feb 4, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 115 | 112 | 17 | 340 |
| EDM | 18 | 14 | 011 | 02 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 8:08EDMRyan SmythSHAssists: Anton Lander · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:41VANJannik HansenAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Chris Higgins · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 17:43VANKevin BieksaAssists: Mason Raymond, Jannik Hansen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:40VANChris TanevGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:46EDMNail Yakupov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:25VANAaron Volpatti: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:04VANHenrik Sedin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15EDMJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 6:59EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:17VANJordan Schroeder: Holding2 min
- P3 7:04EDMRyan Smyth: Interference2 min
- P3 13:35VANKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:47VANDaniel Sedin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Kassian5:30
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Raymond – Schroeder4:50
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:28
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder7:37
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Edler15:58
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Garrison15:19
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Ballard – Tanev11:42
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell5:06
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:50
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Hartikainen – Lander – Paajarvi6:58
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Petrell – Lander3:06
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry8:27
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Petry4:09
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Smid – Schultz6:43
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).