Mon, Feb 4, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 07 | 012 | 126 |
| ANA | 08 | 013 | 211 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:08SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Tommy Wingels · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 3:53ANASaku KoivuUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 13:21ANASheldon SourayGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:20ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20SJSRyane Clowe: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:20SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:20SJSRyane Clowe: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:59SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:22ANABryan Allen: Holding2 min
- P2 7:07SJSMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:44ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
- P2 16:12ANABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:17SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29ANASheldon Souray: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:24ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P3 7:49SJSMichal Handzus: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:13SJSJoe Pavelski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:38ANABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski7:01
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sheppard – Wingels2:11
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins3:54
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Handzus – Havlat – Wingels7:21
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Irwin8:28
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Vlasic14:41
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Murray – Demers8:54
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Winnik5:16
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano3:32
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Staubitz – Bonino – Etem4:39
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Etem2:37
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin9:21
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Lydman – Sbisa12:24
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Lydman – Allen2:00
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).