Tue, Feb 5, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 18 | 05 | 321 |
| WSH | 17 | 08 | 111 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:35TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P1 17:04WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Tomas Kundratek, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:34TORKorbinian HolzerGWGAssists: Mark Fraser, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 6:47WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:40WSHJason Chimera: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:18TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:14TORPhil Kessel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39WSHJason Chimera: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:45WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:42
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Frattin – Kadri7:08
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Orr – Steckel – Komarov4:59
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin13:48
xG 0.21–1.28 (14%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser9:06
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer4:38
xG 0.02–0.26 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka14:38
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Fehr – Beagle3:44
xG 0.94–0.11 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Brouwer – Backstrom11:02
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Ovechkin – Johansson5:08
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Crabb – Wolski3:26
xG 0.15–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Carlson17:11
xG 1.10–0.37 (75%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Green – Alzner18:32
xG 1.04–0.68 (61%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Poti – Green2:32
xG 0.04–0.23 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).