Tue, Feb 5, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 05 | 19 | 122 |
| PHI | 06 | 110 | 18 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25PHITom SestitoAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 9:30TBLBenoit PouliotAssists: Teddy Purcell, Tom Pyatt · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 11:11PHITom SestitoGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Max Talbot · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:19PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:19TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:58TBLBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P1 10:51PHIMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:39PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:16PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:16TBLVincent Lecavalier: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:16PHIMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:16TBLVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 15:10PHIMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:46PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:44
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Labrie2:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos6:56
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos4:03
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman17:01
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Lee – Aulie10:30
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Brewer – Carle13:56
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Giroux – McGinn13:57
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Voracek – Rinaldo – Schenn7:55
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Sestito5:45
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Knuble – Read – Couturier12:47
xG 0.26–0.80 (24%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn16:07
xG 0.82–0.03 (96%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Foster – Grossmann11:56
xG 0.20–0.74 (22%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gervais14:16
xG 0.24–1.04 (19%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).