Tue, Feb 5, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 15 | 06 | 01 | 219 |
| WPG | 03 | 214 | 02 | 12 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:12FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Drew Shore, Mike Weaver · Slap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 2:28WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:52FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Brian Campbell, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:21WPGMark StuartAssists: Zach Redmond, Alexander Burmistrov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 4:44WPGBryan LittlePPGWGAssists: Zach Redmond, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:56FLAPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:54WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:30FLAKris Versteeg: Holding2 min
- P3 9:08WPGJim Slater: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:59FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:50FLAFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau9:39
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Parros – Smithson – Matthias3:31
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:35
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Kovalev – Kopecky – Goc10:45
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov14:50
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan4:27
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Strachan – Ellerby9:34
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Burmistrov13:13
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Antropov – Ponikarovsky – Wellwood12:20
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright6:31
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane12:05
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Postma12:46
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom17:00
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Stuart – Redmond13:35
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).