Tue, Feb 5, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 6, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 39 | 23 | 17 | 619 |
| STL | 04 | 114 | 014 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Martin Erat, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:53NSHRich CluneGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Paul Gaustad · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–0
- P1 19:13NSHNick SpalingAssists: Brandon Yip, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 9:09NSHKevin KleinAssists: Jonathon Blum, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 10:09NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Colin Wilson, Paul Gaustad · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–0
- P2 13:09STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Perron · Backhand, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 16:34NSHMartin EratAssists: Ryan Ellis, Jonathon Blum · Wrist, 0.25 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:55STLAndy McDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:41STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:41NSHDavid Legwand: Diving2 min
- P2 11:53NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:38NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:15NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:22STLVladimir Sobotka: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:07NSHNick Spaling: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Clune – Wilson2:52
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn8:45
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Yip – Spaling – Smith4:49
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Clune2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Weber14:55
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Blum – Ellis5:06
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gill – Ellis4:19
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Tarasenko9:39
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund7:17
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron10:05
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Nichol – D'Agostini5:35
xG 0.00–0.14 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell13:08
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:23
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Redden – Pietrangelo14:32
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).