Wed, Feb 6, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 04 | 011 | 28 | 223 |
| MTL | 011 | 15 | 05 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:53MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:14BOSTyler SeguinAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 2:05BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:21MTLRene Bourque: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:12BOSTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P1 16:53MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:54BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:56BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:09BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:08BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:44BOSAdam McQuaid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:58MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:26BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Seguin4:01
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Campbell – Horton – Bergeron4:36
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tardif – MacDermid – Spooner2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley8:49
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ference – McQuaid6:20
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk14:26
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton13:33
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Armstrong – Eller5:45
xG 0.24–0.19 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:55
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:50
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:29
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban12:47
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin9:48
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Gorges – Emelin3:06
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).