Wed, Feb 6, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 27 | 07 | 12 | 328 |
| EDM | 09 | 17 | 113 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:21EDMAles HemskyAssists: Nail Yakupov, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:24DALJamie BennAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:44DALDerek RoyPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:38EDMJustin SchultzPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:46DALJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Stephane Robidas · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:05DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25EDMRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:11DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:05DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:56DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Roy – Eriksson11:57
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn14:55
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Eakin – Vincour8:37
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Roussel5:35
xG 0.35–0.85 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Rome14:07
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Oleksiak2:02
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon13:48
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hartikainen – Paajarvi4:18
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Arcobello12:04
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Smyth – Petrell – Paajarvi4:04
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov11:25
xG 0.57–0.97 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry15:40
xG 1.09–0.45 (71%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Whitney – Potter11:14
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz15:04
xG 0.55–0.95 (37%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).