Thu, Feb 7, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 212 | 15 | 02 | 1 | 432 |
| BUF | 110 | 118 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Rene Bourque, Alexei Emelin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 4:26BUFSteve OttAssists: Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Brandon Prust, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:06BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:32MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 0:45MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 7:57BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 19:58BUFThomas VanekAssists: Steve Ott, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. MTL Rene Bourque stopped
- 5. BUF Jason Pominville scored
- 6. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:15BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P1 14:48BUFTJ Brennan: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:50MTLColby Armstrong: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:04MTLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:16MTLErik Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:57MTLBrian Gionta: Holding2 min
- P2 17:06BUFCody Hodgson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39BUFSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:32MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:32MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:37BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque11:51
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:13
xG 0.36–0.26 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:18
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Armstrong – White – Eller3:51
xG 0.01–0.06 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz8:55
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Subban13:53
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Gorges – Emelin2:13
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Ott – Grigorenko7:02
xG 0.25–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson10:05
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- McCormick – Gerbe – Scott2:56
xG 0.01–0.04 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno10:10
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Brennan5:30
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff10:01
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Leopold – Weber2:01
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).