Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 08 | 17 | 00 | 2 | 324 |
| PHI | 111 | 111 | 05 | 05 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52FLAJack SkilleAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:44PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:42PHIMatt ReadAssists: Mike Knuble, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 8:35FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 2. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 3. FLA Peter Mueller scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:39PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:24FLAFilip Kuba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:25PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:03PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:25PHIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:06FLAMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:52FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Mueller10:12
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Matthias4:17
xG 0.18–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Shore – Huberdeau10:01
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Skille9:32
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson14:01
xG 0.58–0.12 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Kuba – Strachan10:36
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov15:13
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Read – Couturier10:31
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Voracek – Rinaldo – Schenn10:05
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Sestito4:03
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Giroux – McGinn10:49
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn15:00
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Foster – Grossmann7:46
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gervais12:25
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).