Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 113 | 18 | 11 | 430 |
| CBJ | 212 | 08 | 17 | 02 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Dennis Wideman, Jiri Hudler · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:44CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Vinny Prospal, Tim Erixon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 9:37CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:06CGYMikael BacklundAssists: TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 8:33CGYLee StempniakPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Leland Irving · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:00CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:07CGYAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, TJ Brodie · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:52CGYAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:01CBJDerek MacKenzie: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:41CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:56CGYLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23CBJJared Boll: Interference2 min
- P2 7:27CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:37CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:10CGYLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Iginla
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Backlund – Cervenka2:18
xG 0.55–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Glencross13:19
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Cervenka5:07
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau5:55
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie15:03
xG 0.89–0.09 (91%)attempts 19–5goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano19:02
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Butler – Smith10:04
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Calvert9:50
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies6:13
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Brassard8:36
xG 0.07–0.48 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Umberger – Dorsett – Anisimov13:29
xG 0.12–0.84 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Erixon7:32
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Johnson2:32
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin17:46
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).