Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 27 | 06 | 422 |
| MIN | 03 | 012 | 18 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 14:31VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Jason Garrison · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:17VANMason RaymondPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 18:52VANJannik HansenAssists: Mason Raymond, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 7:25MINTom GilbertPPAssists: Jonas Brodin, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 3:19MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:17VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:17MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:31MINZach Parise: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:25VANKeith Ballard: Interference2 min
- P1 15:25MINDany Heatley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:35VANDale Weise: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:17VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:35MINTorrey Mitchell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:20VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20MINZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min
- P3 2:20MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20MINZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:20MINZenon Konopka: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 6:00VANKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:12MINDevin Setoguchi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:10VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:27MINDany Heatley: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 17:01VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:01MINJustin Falk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Schroeder
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows7:19
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Volpatti4:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Higgins – Lapierre – Kassian8:48
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder6:04
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Garrison9:55
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Tanev12:32
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Edler10:17
xG 0.61–0.69 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Konopka – Setoguchi3:42
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle10:57
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cullen – Heatley – Setoguchi2:16
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Mitchell – Clutterbuck5:22
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin15:06
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner13:13
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Falk – Scandella7:47
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).