Fri, Feb 8, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 113 | 01 | 121 |
| DAL | 216 | 05 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Derek Roy, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:59DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 15:23ANANick BoninoAssists: Luca Sbisa, Corey Perry · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 12:46DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Derek Roy, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:11ANABrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:02DALStephane Robidas: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:02ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:34ANABrad Staubitz: Spearing5 min
- P1 12:34ANABrad Staubitz: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:01ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01ANASheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01DALEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:44DALAaron Rome: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:08DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:39ANAKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:03ANADaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Etem8:14
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano8:31
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Beleskey – Bonino2:04
xG 0.01–0.08 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Sbisa14:59
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Souray – Beauchemin12:44
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Allen – Lovejoy11:31
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn11:48
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Vincour6:48
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ryder – Roy – Eriksson9:28
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Roussel5:19
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Rome14:12
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oleksiak12:59
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Robidas – Dillon12:06
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).