Thu, Apr 25, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 09 | 012 | 030 |
| BOS | 04 | 28 | 012 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:22BOSDennis SeidenbergGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 13:31BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Gregory Campbell, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:21BOSChris Kelly: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:00BOSAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:00TBLBenoit Pouliot: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:16BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:22BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:22TBLKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:43TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Killorn – Panik11:19
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Tyrell7:46
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos12:22
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie9:03
xG 0.02–0.45 (4%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Aulie4:07
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas4:53
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Aulie – Gudas10:24
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Peverley – Lucic9:48
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:14
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:39
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Jagr – Kelly – Soderberg9:52
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – McQuaid14:38
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Chara – Seidenberg16:01
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Ference – Boychuk12:55
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).