Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 08 | 010 | 125 |
| NJD | 07 | 112 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23PITBrandon SutterPPAssists: Simon Despres, Tyler Kennedy · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 16:31NJDStefan MatteauAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 10:56NJDAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Bobby Butler, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 13:08NJDBobby ButlerPPAssists: Andy Greene, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (22)
- P1 0:44NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:07PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:40NJDKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:40PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:20PITJoe Vitale: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:32NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:32PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:32PITPascal Dupuis: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:56PITDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P2 7:10NJDDavid Clarkson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40PITJoe Vitale: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:18NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:15NJDRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 2:26PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:26NJDDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:48PITTanner Glass: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:15NJDMark Fayne: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:26PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:59PITPaul Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 16:58PITBrooks Orpik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:18NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby5:56
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby3:13
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter2:20
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Boychuk9:22
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin10:53
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Engelland – Bortuzzo8:58
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Reese – Despres5:45
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter5:24
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Matteau6:04
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gionta – Carter – Josefson2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Barch – Josefson – Butler2:09
xG 0.01–0.09 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky6:34
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Salvador – Fayne11:43
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson10:02
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).