Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 28 | 28 | 628 |
| MTL | 08 | 020 | 09 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59TORLeo KomarovGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:33TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 3:36TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 18:01TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P3 4:20TORKorbinian HolzerAssists: Colton Orr, Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–0
- P3 13:15TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.23 xG6–0
Penalties (29)
- P1 19:52TORKorbinian Holzer: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:52MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:26MTLErik Cole: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Diving2 min
- P2 10:37TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 10:37MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:29TORMark Fraser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:31TORNikolay Kulemin: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:31MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:42MTLRene Bourque: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34TORMichael Kostka: Holding2 min
- P3 1:09TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:09MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:59TORMichael Kostka: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:59MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:59MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P3 11:30MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:30MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30MTLBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:30TORMikhail Grabovski: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30TORMikhail Grabovski: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:30MTLMax Pacioretty: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:17MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P3 15:01MTLJosh Gorges: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:01TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:01TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:01TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:01TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:14MTLRene Bourque: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Frattin – Kadri7:32
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – McLaren3:52
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:31
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin10:36
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Kostka8:14
xG 0.78–0.08 (91%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka2:04
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser8:06
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk2:10
xG 0.11–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque11:17
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher4:50
xG 0.63–0.75 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Moen – Armstrong – Eller3:38
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz12:32
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Markov – Emelin11:05
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Subban11:16
xG 0.16–1.31 (11%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).