Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 17 | 14 | 315 |
| NYI | 115 | 114 | 014 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:18NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Brian Strait, Brad Boyes · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:21BUFChristian EhrhoffAssists: Cody Hodgson, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 17:35NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Casey Cizikas, Brian Strait · Snap, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 7:35BUFAlexander SulzerGWGAssists: Steve Ott, Mikhail Grigorenko · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:45BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:30NYILubomir Visnovsky: Kneeing2 min
- P2 0:32BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:37BUFDrew Stafford: Holding2 min
- P2 11:37NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57BUFTJ Brennan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:40NYIBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Aucoin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Ott – Grigorenko2:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno11:39
xG 0.61–1.00 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
- Hecht – Ott – Kaleta9:44
xG 0.15–0.75 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson13:00
xG 0.36–1.51 (19%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sulzer – Brennan5:57
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Sulzer – Sekera3:06
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff19:54
xG 1.01–1.36 (43%)attempts 20–23goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares16:09
xG 1.77–0.23 (88%)attempts 29–11goals 1–0
- Bailey – Martin – Cizikas7:31
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom6:36
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner12:12
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic18:19
xG 2.10–0.48 (81%)attempts 31–16goals 0–1
- Streit – Hickey13:54
xG 0.95–0.05 (95%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Streit – Visnovsky2:38
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).