Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 6, St. Louis Blues 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 310 | 15 | 02 | 4 | 623 |
| STL | 311 | 06 | 212 | 02 | 3 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:09ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:30STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 19:26STLDavid PerronAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 12:40ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 13:25ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Nick Bonino, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 14:21ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 3:21STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 13:41ANASaku KoivuAssists: Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 15:26STLChris StewartPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. ANA Saku Koivu scored
- 5. STL David Perron scored
- 6. ANA Bobby Ryan stopped
- 7. STL Chris Stewart scored
- 8. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 9. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 10. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
- 11. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
- 12. ANA Nick Bonino scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:01ANAEmerson Etem: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:47STLDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:34ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Winnik – Cogliano7:16
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan2:45
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Etem6:01
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri5:17
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin14:00
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 3–1
- Allen – Lovejoy10:42
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Lydman – Sbisa15:16
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – Oshie11:32
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Schwartz5:49
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Sobotka – Tarasenko8:27
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Stewart – Berglund – Perron10:28
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – Polak9:47
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Cole – Pietrangelo15:30
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:47
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).