Sun, Feb 10, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 04 | 23 | 314 |
| CBJ | 013 | 012 | 115 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58EDMAles HemskyAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 9:43CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 16:50EDMMagnus PaajarviSHGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 19:47EDMSam GagnerENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:16EDMNail Yakupov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:54EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:43CBJJames Wisniewski: Holding2 min
- P1 19:01EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:02CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:03EDMTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P2 10:36CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:09EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:28CBJVinny Prospal: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:13EDMMark Fistric: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:33EDMBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:33CBJJared Boll: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:15EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov8:11
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hartikainen – Paajarvi4:36
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall6:13
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Smyth – Eager – Petrell5:03
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Petry9:46
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Potter – Smid11:21
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz9:37
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Brassard2:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies4:37
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Calvert5:42
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Prospal – Anisimov – Letestu4:56
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Erixon8:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin12:43
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson14:01
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).