Sun, Feb 10, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 016 | 110 | 213 | 339 |
| BUF | 013 | 15 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:10BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 18:01BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 7:52BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Chris Bourque, Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 19:11BOSMilan LucicENAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:59BOSGregory Campbell: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:59BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59BOSGregory Campbell: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:59BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:57BUFCody Hodgson: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:04BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:24BUFAlexander Sulzer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:32BOSBrad Marchand: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 15:41BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25BOSAndrew Ference: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Bergeron – Marchand10:04
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin13:50
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley8:11
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:03
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk2:28
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk10:44
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:18
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gerbe – Ennis – Foligno12:03
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- McCormick – Kaleta – Scott5:01
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Stafford10:00
xG 0.09–0.67 (11%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson10:09
xG 0.04–0.84 (5%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Weber10:44
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer16:11
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Leopold – Sekera3:18
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).