Mon, Feb 11, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 114 | 411 | 631 |
| NYI | 112 | 212 | 14 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 13:42CARTim WallaceAssists: Jamie McBain, Andreas Nodl · Tip-in, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 5:23NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Lubomir Visnovsky · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 5:52CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:46NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Snap, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 0:30CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 5:33CARAlexander SeminAssists: Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 9:09CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Jay Harrison · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 11:32NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 19:49CARJiri TlustyENAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.63 xG6–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:18CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:16NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:04CARTim Brent: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:18NYILubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:12CARAndreas Nodl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:08CARTim Gleason: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P3 6:46NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:46CARTim Brent: Diving2 min
- P3 11:07CARJiri Tlusty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:50CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty12:29
xG 0.98–0.19 (84%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Brent – Nodl – Wallace6:54
xG 0.51–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner11:37
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman8:26
xG 0.07–0.39 (16%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason15:17
xG 0.95–0.17 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – McBain13:57
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Gleason – Harrison2:42
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares14:32
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas3:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom4:43
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bailey – Martin – Cizikas5:43
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hickey11:39
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Streit – MacDonald2:58
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Strait11:03
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).