Mon, Feb 11, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 210 | 16 | 423 |
| STL | 05 | 17 | 010 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31LAKJeff CarterAssists: Slava Voynov, Mike Richards · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:23LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Keaton Ellerby · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 13:22LAKDavis DrewiskePPAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 19:17STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Andy McDonald · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 3:36LAKJarret StollAssists: Slava Voynov, Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:01STLWade Redden: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:01LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:11STLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:16LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- P1 18:37STLDavid Backes: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:04LAKJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:04STLMatt D'Agostini: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:02STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37STLAndy McDonald: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:59LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 19:14LAKTrevor Lewis: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:14STLVladimir Sobotka: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:14LAKTrevor Lewis: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:55LAKRob Scuderi: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:07LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:29STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – King – Nolan6:12
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Carter – Clifford8:43
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar9:14
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis4:58
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov12:49
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty4:14
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Doughty9:17
xG 0.39–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Stewart – Berglund4:34
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Sobotka – Tarasenko2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nichol – Reaves – D'Agostini5:14
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie9:41
xG 0.08–0.10 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak12:39
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Redden – Cole2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk5:35
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).