Mon, Feb 11, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 013 | 16 | 13 | 330 |
| COL | 016 | 216 | 08 | 03 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10PHXShane DoanAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:25COLMark OlverAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan O'Byrne · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:28COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 11:39PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:01PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:03COLMichael Sgarbossa: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:05PHXZbynek Michalek: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:00COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:00PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:46COLShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:19COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:19PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:22PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:49COLMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P2 14:49PHXKeith Yandle: Diving2 min
- P2 14:49PHXSteve Sullivan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:59COLGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:44COLJamie McGinn: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:34PHXMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:41PHXDavid Moss: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Moss – Boedker4:16
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Torres – Hanzal4:00
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Moss – Gordon4:23
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Chipchura – Korpikoski3:47
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Stone5:43
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Klesla – Michalek5:01
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson9:40
xG 0.08–0.47 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – Duchene9:17
xG 1.50–0.09 (95%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – Palushaj5:04
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hejduk – McLeod – Sgarbossa2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McLeod – Olver2:18
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie10:29
xG 1.67–0.41 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – O'Brien7:17
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Barrie3:10
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).