Tue, Feb 12, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 210 | 25 | 425 |
| NJD | 16 | 08 | 114 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:59NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:36CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 18:29CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jay Harrison, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 1:34NJDRyan CarterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 7:25CARJiri TlustyPPGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:26CARJiri TlustyENAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:35CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:57NJDJacob Josefson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:34NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P2 15:00CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:26CARJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:31NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:58CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:43NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:23NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Bowman6:24
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brent – Nodl – Wallace6:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner11:52
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty10:52
xG 0.30–0.84 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain10:53
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk13:25
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Henrique9:26
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:13
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Matteau5:57
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Butler4:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky11:49
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Salvador – Fayne14:40
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson12:52
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).