Tue, Feb 12, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 014 | 015 | 042 |
| OTT | 07 | 217 | 07 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:20OTTErik KarlssonSHGWGAssists: Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 17:14OTTErik CondraAssists: Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:40BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:04BUFSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:22BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:58BUFPatrick Kaleta: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:14BUFRobyn Regehr: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:53OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:34OTTJim O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P3 7:20OTTKyle Turris: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:06OTTMarc Methot: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:06BUFMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:35BUFJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P3 17:17BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P3 19:34BUFNathan Gerbe: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno6:04
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – McCormick – Kaleta4:57
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Grigorenko7:15
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson7:32
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera10:57
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Leopold – Weber7:44
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Regehr – Myers10:26
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Daugavins – Smith3:00
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Zibanejad7:43
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Condra – Turris – Silfverberg2:50
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Daugavins – O'Brien – Da Costa4:21
xG 0.40–0.29 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson12:27
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:19
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch7:57
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).