Tue, Feb 12, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 29 | 011 | 06 | 1 | 434 |
| TBL | 09 | 07 | 37 | 01 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:17MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 8:21MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 18:54MTLTravis MoenAssists: Lars Eller, Colby Armstrong · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 14:04TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tom Pyatt, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Teddy Purcell, Sami Salo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:16TBLSami SaloPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:37MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P1 4:20TBLSami Salo: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 8:30TBLCory Conacher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:29TBLBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P1 18:03TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:05MTLErik Cole: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:16MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P2 11:01TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:01MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:06MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:54TBLBenoit Pouliot: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:17TBLBrian Lee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:17MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:56MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:26TBLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque11:30
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:47
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – Eller6:59
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Cole – Prust – Desharnais10:41
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Emelin2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban10:55
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Gorges – Emelin2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:32
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Thompson2:45
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Stamkos – Conacher3:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Killorn – Panik2:20
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Aulie9:35
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle12:16
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Salo – Hedman12:03
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).