Tue, Feb 12, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 26 | 06 | 111 | 323 |
| WPG | 19 | 011 | 16 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Braydon Coburn · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:12WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 17:08PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 4:17PHITye McGinnGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:13WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:42WPGAnthony Peluso: Holding2 min
- P1 11:56PHIKurtis Foster: Interference2 min
- P1 16:15WPGZach Redmond: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:17PHITye McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:51WPGAnthony Peluso: Charging2 min
- P3 6:25WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P3 9:31PHIMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- P3 13:06PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Read10:21
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – McGinn6:52
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Knuble – Brière – Fedotenko8:35
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk6:46
xG 0.14–0.49 (23%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gervais11:19
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn12:08
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Schenn4:33
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:45
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Wellwood – Burmistrov8:50
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Slater – Peluso – Wright2:39
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Antropov – Kane12:07
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Redmond11:17
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Postma3:40
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma9:18
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).