Tue, Feb 12, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 19 | 311 | 429 |
| EDM | 111 | 016 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:23DALBrenden DillonAssists: Stephane Robidas, Derek Roy · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 0:44DALEric NystromGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 15:25DALJaromir JagrAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:17DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.30 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:08DALMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:29EDMNail Yakupov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:03EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:03DALAaron Rome: Interference2 min
- P1 16:59DALCody Eakin: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 8:14EDMBen Eager: Holding2 min
- P2 17:35DALAaron Rome: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 4:42EDMMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:44EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt7:13
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Ryder – Roy – Eriksson7:55
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Vincour8:39
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn11:25
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon13:04
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Larsen14:29
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Daley – Rome11:13
xG 0.56–0.88 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:29
xG 1.21–0.53 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Belanger – Hartikainen – Paajarvi4:25
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Belanger – Eager – Petrell2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – VandeVelde3:53
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz12:47
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
- Potter – Smid9:04
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Fistric – Petry11:34
xG 0.41–0.71 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).