Wed, Feb 13, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 13 | 214 | 06 | 12 | 425 |
| DET | 211 | 15 | 01 | 01 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17DETTomas TatarAssists: Patrick Eaves · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:54DETDrew MillerAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P1 15:18STLPatrik BerglundSHAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:12STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 8:57STLChris StewartAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 12:39DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:52STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Barret Jackman, David Backes · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:30STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:07STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:47DETIan White: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17DETCory Emmerton: Interference2 min
- P2 15:43DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:43STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 6:05STLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:00STLIan Cole: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Schwartz8:49
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron13:58
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves5:29
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- McDonald – Steen – Tarasenko9:32
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pietrangelo16:12
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:44
xG 0.19–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Polak – Russell7:35
xG 0.04–0.64 (6%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Miller – Emmerton7:38
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Filppula9:44
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Brunner12:39
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Eaves – Andersson – Tatar6:40
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Ericsson11:01
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Lashoff11:52
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl11:28
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).