Thu, Feb 14, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 314 | 07 | 04 | 2 | 431 |
| NYR | 211 | 112 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36NYRDan GirardiAssists: Carl Hagelin, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:28NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 0:29NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 6:45NYIJohn TavaresUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 7:25NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Brian Strait · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:14NYRCarl HagelinPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. NYR Rick Nash stopped
- 4. NYI John Tavares scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:25NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:25NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:06NYIEric Boulton: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33NYIFrans Nielsen: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 9:43NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:14NYIJoe Finley: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares18:12
xG 0.97–0.97 (50%)attempts 25–20goals 1–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:17
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner5:35
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:15
xG 0.64–1.43 (31%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Strait12:15
xG 1.35–0.56 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Streit – Visnovsky2:57
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic2:44
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Callahan8:04
xG 1.11–0.42 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan13:23
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Boyle – Callahan4:29
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Callahan2:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman12:31
xG 1.31–0.73 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi5:23
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Del Zotto3:16
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).