Fri, Feb 15, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 117 | 03 | 232 |
| BUF | 110 | 06 | 310 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:56BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: David Krejci, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:29BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 2:03BUFTyler MyersAssists: Jochen Hecht, Nathan Gerbe · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 9:02BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 11:45BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Tyler Myers, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:42BOSAdam McQuaid: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:17BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19BOSMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:42BUFSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 2:35BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:17
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley10:34
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:34
xG 0.17–0.19 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:58
xG 0.33–1.20 (22%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:20
xG 1.38–0.49 (74%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:41
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:37
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Ott – Gerbe6:11
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno13:43
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott2:54
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson11:19
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers2:17
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 2–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer17:27
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Leopold – Sekera12:30
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).