Fri, Feb 15, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 311 | 011 | 06 | 328 |
| NJD | 17 | 29 | 23 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:27PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 11:15PHIMike KnubleAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 12:03PHIMatt ReadAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 0:26NJDAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Brodeur · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 15:40NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 10:43NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:24NJDSteve BernierENAssists: Patrik Elias, Stephen Gionta · Backhand, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 3:57PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:40NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Schenn – McGinn12:15
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier8:25
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read15:32
xG 0.79–0.84 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 1–3
- Knuble – Brière – Fedotenko9:14
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Grossmann6:19
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Schenn2:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Schenn7:34
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Henrique12:54
xG 0.91–0.46 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Barch – Josefson – Butler4:36
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter10:02
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac17:42
xG 0.31–0.59 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson17:50
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Fayne6:31
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky7:53
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).