Fri, Feb 15, 2013·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 18 | 012 | 128 |
| CHI | 19 | 217 | 111 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16CHIDave BollandAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 3:05CHIMarcus KrugerGWGAssists: Jamal Mayers, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 5:03SJSTim KennedyAssists: Logan Couture, Brad Stuart · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:40CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 6:28CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Marcus Kruger, Jamal Mayers · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:40CHISheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:58SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31CHIJonathan Toews: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:31SJSJoe Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:31CHIJonathan Toews: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:31CHIJonathan Toews: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:55SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
- P2 9:09SJSDouglas Murray: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 13:15SJSJason Demers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:22SJSAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:51CHISheldon Brookbank: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:25CHIViktor Stalberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:25SJSAdam Burish: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:25CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25SJSDouglas Murray: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Burish – Galiardi2:41
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Handzus – Gomez – Wingels4:54
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Havlat – Pavelski3:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Havlat – Burish – Galiardi5:18
xG 0.51–0.45 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Stuart13:26
xG 1.30–0.63 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Murray – Burns6:15
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers7:45
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Frolik – Kruger5:28
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:02
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane9:49
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw7:48
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson13:24
xG 0.90–0.32 (74%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:45
xG 0.58–0.85 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Leddy12:42
xG 0.15–0.79 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).