Fri, Feb 15, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 412 | 05 | 18 | 525 |
| CGY | 08 | 115 | 19 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 4:07STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 13:49STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 17:12STLDavid PerronPPAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 15:37CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 2:46CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Anton Babchuk · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:08STLDavid PerronPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:51CGYDerek Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:29CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56STLRyan Reaves: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:19STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:33STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:03CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:06STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNichol – Sobotka – Reaves8:31
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron11:34
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz10:01
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- McDonald – Steen – Tarasenko9:10
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell10:36
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk15:16
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Cole – Pietrangelo15:49
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Glencross – Horak3:42
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Hudler – Comeau5:53
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Glencross – Cervenka4:48
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak9:38
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano16:13
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Wideman – Brodie12:11
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Wideman – Bouwmeester3:18
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).