Fri, Feb 15, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 118 | 27 | 429 |
| VAN | 08 | 311 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:51DALReilly SmithAssists: Loui Eriksson, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:21VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:14VANChris HigginsAssists: Dale Weise, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:56VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:50DALCody EakinAssists: Trevor Daley, Michael Ryder · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 12:22DALAntoine RousselAssists: Michael Ryder, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–3
- P3 16:59DALBrenden DillonGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:16DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P1 9:49DALAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:31VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 5:52VANJason Garrison: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:09VANAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:10VANMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:10DALVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:12VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:12DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:50VANDale Weise: Interference2 min
- P3 6:57DALJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Roussel – Eakin6:37
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn13:30
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Roy – Eriksson – Smith11:06
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt6:31
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Rome16:20
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Larsen12:27
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Robidas – Dillon14:32
xG 0.20–0.59 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:07
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder6:15
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Higgins – Lapierre – Hansen2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti4:46
xG 0.05–0.13 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Tanev12:23
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Garrison13:47
xG 0.13–0.37 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Edler14:06
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).