Fri, Feb 15, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 04 | 15 | 113 |
| LAK | 09 | 16 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:40LAKKyle CliffordUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 1:34LAKMike RichardsPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Bernier · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 17:35CBJNick FolignoAssists: Jack Johnson, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:54CBJColton Gillies: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:48CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:53LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58LAKKeaton Ellerby: Interference2 min
- P2 13:18LAKDrew Doughty: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:00CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P3 6:56LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:27CBJJared Boll: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Gillies4:09
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dorsett – Brassard8:25
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Prospal – Dubinsky – Foligno3:09
xG 0.05–0.03 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Calvert7:30
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Aucoin – Johnson14:33
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Erixon10:21
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin12:06
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – Clifford2:42
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Williams – Carter – Penner5:10
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar9:38
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Nolan5:46
xG 0.03–0.01 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Drewiske8:13
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Doughty14:40
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Voynov12:21
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).