Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 019 | 010 | 034 |
| TOR | 17 | 010 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14TORFrazer McLarenGWGAssists: Mark Fraser, Jay McClement · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 8:32TORTyler BozakAssists: Dion Phaneuf, James van Riemsdyk · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 19:22TORJohn-Michael LilesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:09TORClarke MacArthur: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:25TORJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:40OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:55OTTMika Zibanejad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:59TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Daugavins – Smith10:27
xG 0.89–0.13 (87%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Dziurzynski – Da Costa2:11
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Da Costa – Zibanejad5:21
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Grant – Dziurzynski2:42
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit11:55
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Lundin14:42
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba13:00
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Brown – McLaren3:27
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:06
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin10:27
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Orr – MacArthur – Kadri10:35
xG 0.08–0.88 (8%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Kostka15:27
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer15:04
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser11:31
xG 0.44–0.87 (34%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).