Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 02 | 18 | 09 | 119 |
| MTL | 112 | 16 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:15MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 13:56PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:32MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Rene Bourque, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:56MTLRene BourqueENAssists: Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges · Backhand, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:55PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P1 2:55MTLBrandon Prust: Diving2 min
- P1 10:53PHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:28PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 1:42MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:18MTLMax Pacioretty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:24PHIDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:52PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – McGinn – Couturier5:21
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read3:22
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn3:38
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read7:19
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gervais8:55
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Timonen – Gervais2:14
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Coburn – Schenn5:12
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:16
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Prust – Galchenyuk7:20
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Moen – Armstrong – Eller4:58
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:40
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin9:53
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Gorges – Diaz12:32
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:42
xG 0.03–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).