Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 015 | 05 | 111 | 131 |
| NYI | 09 | 314 | 210 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:46NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Brad Boyes, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 18:09NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–2
- P2 19:06NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 8:47NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:45NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mark Streit, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 19:25NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Keith Aucoin, Travis Hamonic · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:37NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13NJDHenrik Tallinder: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:36NYIBrad Boyes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:51NJDBryce Salvador: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:54NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07NYIMichael Grabner: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:45NJDMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:21NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50NJDSteve Bernier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:50NJDKrys Barch: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter9:22
xG 0.79–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Barch – Josefson – Butler4:45
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac10:47
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Henrique9:33
xG 0.34–0.28 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov15:53
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson12:35
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Zidlicky15:10
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas12:07
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares13:06
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Grabner – Ullstrom6:22
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey8:55
xG 0.38–0.85 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Strait3:35
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Strait11:34
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:38
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).