Sat, Feb 16, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 111 | 214 | 11 | 636 |
| FLA | 111 | 28 | 210 | 01 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Mike Weaver, Jack Skille · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:48TBLBenoit PouliotAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 6:51TBLAlex KillornAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:27FLAJack SkilleAssists: Shawn Matthias, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 3:42TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Cory Conacher, Teddy Purcell · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 19:55FLAJerred SmithsonAssists: Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 1:53FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Drew Shore, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–4
- P3 3:24FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Stephen Weiss, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 7:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 19:49TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nate Thompson · Snap, 0.09 xG5–5
- OT 1:19TBLBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Tom Pyatt, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.22 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:05FLAJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:41TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42TBLCory Conacher: Diving2 min
- P3 6:40FLAAlex Kovalev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:58FLABrian Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:56TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot11:55
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Killorn6:15
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher10:09
xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Hall – Crombeen – Panik3:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Lee9:12
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Lee2:31
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman13:41
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau8:00
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Parros – Smithson6:42
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias9:36
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 2–2
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann10:27
xG 0.10–0.55 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov14:26
xG 1.17–0.64 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Kuba – Weaver12:59
xG 1.18–1.07 (52%)attempts 11–23goals 2–2
- Strachan – Gudbranson11:37
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).