Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 19 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 322 |
| NSH | 114 | 19 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Jonathon Blum, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.55 xG0–1
- P1 17:25ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Corey Perry, Bryan Allen · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:31NSHShea WeberAssists: Roman Josi, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 16:08ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Nick Bonino scored
- 2. NSH David Legwand stopped
- 3. ANA Andrew Cogliano stopped
- 4. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 5. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 6. NSH Gabriel Bourque stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:17ANASheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:30ANASheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:55ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 6:55NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 7:01NSHHal Gill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32ANABobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey13:19
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Ryan – Cogliano – Bonino6:03
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Palmieri – Holland3:33
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Winnik5:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin15:55
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Allen – Lovejoy16:52
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Lydman – Sbisa14:50
xG 0.32–1.04 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Wilson11:17
xG 0.62–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Smith7:44
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Halischuk – Spaling2:14
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Gaustad – Clune3:01
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBlum – Ellis3:59
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gill – Ellis3:53
xG 0.52–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Klein – Josi7:25
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).