Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 27 | 110 | 03 | 320 |
| PHX | 314 | 07 | 214 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09CBJJared BollAssists: Jack Johnson, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:30PHXDavid MossAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 7:00PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 8:00CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 17:40PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Keith Yandle, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 5:16CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Jared Boll, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:18PHXMartin HanzalPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–4
- P3 18:56PHXMartin HanzalENAssists: Keith Yandle, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:21PHXDavid Moss: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:27CBJTim Erixon: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:27CBJTim Erixon: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40CBJVinny Prospal: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:10PHXSteve Sullivan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:07CBJDerek MacKenzie: Holding2 min
- P2 16:39CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:46CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:59PHXChris Summers: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:59CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:33CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Calvert3:57
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Brassard2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Prospal – Drazenovic – Letestu3:51
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies3:50
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore11:19
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Erixon11:31
xG 0.64–0.85 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Tyutin – Nikitin14:27
xG 0.06–0.36 (13%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker8:58
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Moss – Gordon – Korpikoski6:14
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Moss – Gordon – Chipchura6:34
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Vrbata – Hanzal3:56
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Yandle16:44
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:05
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Summers – Rundblad5:14
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).