Sat, Feb 16, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 312 | 17 | 010 | 429 |
| EDM | 123 | 215 | 318 | 656 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22COLCody McLeodAssists: Milan Hejduk, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 18:47COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jamie McGinn, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:11COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 19:56EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 6:24COLJohn MitchellPPAssists: Jamie McGinn, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 15:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall, Mark Fistric · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 16:58EDMAles HemskyAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 8:58EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 18:26EDMMagnus PaajarviGWGAssists: Ryan Smyth, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 18:51EDMJordan EberleENAssists: Taylor Hall, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:52COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:52EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31EDMRyan Smyth: Holding2 min
- P2 17:57COLAaron Palushaj: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:19COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 8:14COLMatt Hunwick: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:51EDMRyan Smyth: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:25EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Palushaj9:47
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – McLeod7:17
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – Olver4:01
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene13:23
xG 0.72–1.24 (37%)attempts 11–23goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Hunwick12:21
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Barrie3:06
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 2–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda5:24
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:20
xG 1.09–0.52 (67%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
- Eager – VandeVelde – Paajarvi4:46
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov4:07
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hartikainen8:10
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry10:13
xG 0.79–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Smid – Fistric5:53
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Fistric8:07
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).