Sun, Feb 17, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 213 | 14 | 326 |
| WPG | 05 | 29 | 010 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Zach Bogosian, Zach Redmond · Snap, 0.55 xG0–1
- P2 10:57BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 19:33WPGEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov, Alexander Burmistrov · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 19:58BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Chris Kelly · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:36BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Chris Bourque · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:41BOSShawn Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:09WPGRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:41BOSRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:12
xG 1.06–0.46 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Kelly – Paille – Bourque8:20
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Thornton – Campbell5:20
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Paille – Peverley3:47
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk2:49
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid11:33
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ference – Hamilton2:56
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Kane – Burmistrov14:41
xG 1.96–0.45 (81%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright4:28
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:34
xG 1.05–0.97 (52%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Wellwood – Tangradi13:46
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Bogosian17:29
xG 1.16–0.58 (67%)attempts 23–20goals 0–0
- Stuart – Redmond12:40
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Redmond2:02
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).