Sun, Feb 17, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 111 | 13 | 01 | 2 | 423 |
| VAN | 28 | 04 | 114 | 05 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:45STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, David Perron · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 19:10VANHenrik SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 7:13STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 8:00STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Chris Stewart · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:13VANMason RaymondPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 4. STL Andy McDonald scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:32STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44VANChris Tanev: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:38VANDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:48VANAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:44STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03STLAlex Pietrangelo: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:39STLIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron12:53
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund5:30
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Steen – Tarasenko11:20
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak15:50
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 3–1
- Cole – Pietrangelo16:26
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk11:55
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows13:37
xG 1.08–0.14 (89%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti4:07
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond4:42
xG 0.06–0.14 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder7:21
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Tanev13:40
xG 1.20–0.64 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Garrison17:29
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Edler17:03
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).