Mon, Feb 18, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 09 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 230 |
| NJD | 117 | 04 | 010 | 00 | 0 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P3 8:12OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 2. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 3. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 4. OTT Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 5. NJD Bobby Butler stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:47NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:50OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 12:27OTTEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P1 14:01NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:01OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:13NJDAndrei Loktionov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:47NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:47NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:47OTTChris Neil: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:47OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:47OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:47NJDPatrik Elias: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47NJDPatrik Elias: Interference2 min
- P3 19:47OTTMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Turris – Silfverberg13:32
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Neil – Smith – Dziurzynski8:19
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Daugavins – O'Brien – Grant3:41
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – O'Brien2:38
xG 0.03–0.07 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch14:25
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba14:48
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lundin14:51
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter4:04
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Henrique5:33
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Gionta2:26
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac6:31
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky4:44
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Volchenkov8:27
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson18:28
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).