Mon, Feb 18, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 7, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 36 | 38 | 725 |
| NYI | 08 | 06 | 05 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Matt Read, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:15PHIMatt ReadAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:57PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 14:45PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Matt Read, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 3:31PHIZac RinaldoAssists: Harry Zolnierczyk, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
- P3 10:27PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Sean Couturier, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.16 xG6–0
- P3 17:46PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:56NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P1 13:50PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:01NYIJohn Tavares: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:44PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:44NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:38PHIDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P2 6:22NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:42PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:29PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35NYILubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:33PHIBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:33NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Read8:54
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn10:32
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Knuble – Talbot – Couturier10:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk7:56
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Schenn3:04
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Timonen – Schenn8:48
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Coburn – Grossmann12:27
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:26
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Okposo – Bailey2:20
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Grabner – Ullstrom6:56
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:37
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – MacDonald2:59
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Strait4:05
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Finley – Hamonic2:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).