Mon, Feb 18, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 08 | 06 | 019 |
| MTL | 07 | 011 | 38 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:06MTLBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 12:03MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alexei Emelin · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 12:21MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:21MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:21CARPatrick Dwyer: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:19MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Holding2 min
- P2 3:45CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:36CARJay Harrison: Holding2 min
- P2 10:25MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 13:00CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:19MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P3 18:10CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Staal5:30
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty10:16
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Staal – Nodl3:29
xG 0.03–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Wallace – Nash – Bowman4:13
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – McBain10:17
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk19:30
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Sanguinetti – Jordan7:10
xG 0.05–0.23 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque13:10
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Eller3:54
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty4:35
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White6:40
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban13:45
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Gorges – Diaz13:46
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Markov – Emelin13:41
xG 0.12–0.40 (24%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).