Mon, Feb 18, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 214 | 07 | 333 |
| FLA | 014 | 011 | 012 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:04TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:13TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 13:57TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:41TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 7:28FLABrian Campbell: Interference2 min
- P2 7:28TORLeo Komarov: Diving2 min
- P2 10:47FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:43TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:43FLATyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:37TORLeo Komarov: Diving2 min
- P3 7:18FLAAlex Kovalev: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:50TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:21
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- McClement – Brown – McLaren4:57
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin9:23
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Orr – MacArthur – Kadri8:26
xG 0.42–0.93 (31%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Kostka16:33
xG 0.54–0.91 (37%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer12:54
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser14:20
xG 0.50–0.94 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann2:33
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau11:16
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann7:49
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Parros – Smithson5:59
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov17:10
xG 1.47–0.73 (67%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Kuba – Weaver10:12
xG 0.80–0.18 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Strachan – Gudbranson9:56
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).