Tue, Feb 19, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 03 | 17 | 28 | 318 |
| NYR | 05 | 110 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:29NYRAnton StralmanAssists: Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 18:45MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Josh Gorges, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:48MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 18:54MTLRaphael DiazENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:55MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:19NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:54MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Galchenyuk11:49
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:34
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White7:18
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque15:21
xG 0.20–0.99 (17%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin17:21
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz16:49
xG 0.20–0.55 (27%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Subban16:42
xG 0.61–1.17 (34%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Hagelin – Stepan16:02
xG 1.36–0.24 (85%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Asham – Halpern – Mashinter4:19
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller11:05
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Richards – Callahan – Kreider12:52
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh13:13
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman12:17
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi6:05
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).